Solving the Iraninan nuclear crisis: Regime change versus diplomatic track

Type :

Presentation

Pages :

10 pages

Format :

.doc

Published date :

01/15/2009

Category :

Political science

Sub category :

International relations

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Summary :

The Iranian nuclear issue.
The American position.
Chronology of the Iranian nuclear crisis.
The different approaches: Behaviour change versus regime change.
1. The inefficiency and danger of the ambiguous regime change policy.
2. The unfeasibility of the military option.
3. The possibility of negotiations.
4. The engagement policy.
5. The framework of an efficient negotiation policy.
A weak Iran: The possibility of a military option.
Iran in Iraq: The over estimated player.
Conclusion.
References.

Abstract

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the hidden Iranian nuclear program starts in 1987. In December 2002, the United States accuses Iran to seek to develop a Weapons of Mass Destruction program and in June 2003, the IAEA reports after inspection of suspect sites that Iran failed to comply with Non Proliferation Treaty. Iran claims that its nuclear program aims at producing civilian nuclear energy, as the article IV of the 1970 Non Proliferation Treaty authorizes, whereas the great powers are concerned about the risks of a hijacking of the civilian technologies in order to produce nuclear weapons. The enrichment process started in the Ispahan facilities could enable Iran to produce up to two atomic bombs per year within a ten years delay. This delay is not certain given that the International Atomic Energy Agency is not allowed to monitor all the Iranian nuclear facilities and given that the amount of equipment bought by Iran on the black market through the Abdul Khan's network remains unknown. There is also the issue of potential parallel nuclear program carried out by the Army or the Revolutionary Guards. In addition, since the first revelations concerning the Iranian nuclear program in 2003, Iran has always hidden some elements while negotiating.